Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Rain Is Good News for Republicans

My wife finally has to admit I was right. She thought I was stereotyping Dems as lazy when I would pray for rain on Election Day each year as a way to keep the Libs at home and away from the ballot box. Now I have the proof (thanks to weather.com)!  I can't help it if they're lazy....

You Didn't Vote? Don't Blame it on the Weather
by Tim Ballisty, Editorial Meteorologist

Does weather affect voter turnout?

When election day rolls around in November, that question seemingly always enters the political discussion.

Pundits spout out their beliefs - "Democrats are loving the rain in Dixie!" or "Republicans are happy to see that there's snow in the forecast for New England!"

But again, does weather truly act as a barrier between the voter and the voting booth?

In 2007, researchers actually got down to business and sought out an answer to this very question.

The study was written by political scientists Brad T. Gomez of the University of Georgia, Thomas G. Hansford of the University of California, Merced, and George A. Krause of the University of Pittsburgh.

The researchers analyzed the affects of precipitation and temperature on voter turnout in more than 3,000 U.S. counties for 14 U.S. presidential elections from 1948 - 2000, which they say is the most comprehensive test of the weather-turnout thesis ever done.

The evidence they uncovered does indeed support the claim; rain and/or snow significantly decreases the level of voter turnout within a county.

Not only does weather affect turnout but it provides a noticeable bump for Republicans. The study found that foul weather conditions are positively related to Republican Party vote share in presidential elections.

Let's dig into some of the numbers and find out how much rain and/or snow can add some intrigue into the voting returns.

Each one inch increase in rain above its Election Day average for a typical county yields a gain of 2.5% of Republican vote share.

Every one inch increase in rain above its Election Day average yields a decline in voter turnout by just slightly 1%.

Each one inch of snowfall above its Election Day average results in a gain of 0.60% in the Republican vote share.

Each one inch of snowfall above its Election Day average reduces voter turnout by nearly 0.5%.

2 comments:

SPN Headlines said...

Thank goodness, President Obama's new Czar will see to it that polling place beatings are dispensed fairly and only to those who deserve them - SHOCKING story at:

http://spnheadlines.blogspot.com/2010/10/obama-appoints-czar-to-oversee-beatings.html

PEACE! :-)

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